Cattle producers signal plans for more calves on the ground: MLA intentions survey

Optimism is strongest in the country's biggest cattle state, Queensland, with 82 per cent of those surveyed intending to either increase or retain their numbers. Most of those cited good summer rainfall was having a strong influence on their more positive outlook.

Even in Victoria, where drought conditions have taken hold across significant swathes of cattle country, sentiment had improved and 56pc intended to grow.

The survey of more than 3000 grassfed beef cattle producers, conducted in April and May, gives weight to arguments Australia's herd will grow in size this year.

Overall, the results found that one in two producers had a positive outlook, resulting in a net positive sentiment increase of 11pc to 34pc compared to the last survey in November 2023.

MLA manager for market information Stephen Bignell said there was a clear change in intention from the end of last year, where there was a stronger intention to reduce herd sizes on the back of the dry conditions expected heading into summer.

"While the results do not indicate producers have all shifted to a rebuild focus, there has been a noticeable shift away from herd reductions at this stage," he said.

Western Australian producers continue to report a very negative outlook for the next year, clearly driven by low prices and a lack of rainfall.

The breakdown of the factors causing a more positive outlook was dominated by the belief the market is on the way. However, more rain, the availability of more feed, prices and supply in overseas markets and farm business management feedback also made a mark on positive thinking.

Factors affecting a more negative outlook included input costs, government regulations, uncertainty about prices, lack of processing capacity and personal issues like age.

Elders national livestock manager Peter Homann believes the industry still hasn't entirely recovered from what he terms the 'El Nino scare' late last year.

The evidence of that, he said, was a lack of confidence in buying longer-term cattle.

"The prices of cattle with weight have certainly firmed and that's providing confidence but light cattle are still in that situation where they've never been better buying," he said.

"It doesn't matter if it's a little Brahman heifer in Charters Towers or an Angus steer in Victoria - all young cattle are good buying at the moment and that's because the competition for them isn't there."

StoneX analyst Ripley Atkinson said other figures of note in the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey results were turn-off weights.

A total of 19pc of producers said their turnoff weights would be heavier than last year; 67pc had no change to turnoff weights and only 12pc were reporting expected lower weights.

Mr Atkinson said those heavier weights provided an early lead indicator to higher beef production ahead.

Mr Bignell said the April survey had a focus on measuring some of the demographics of Australia's herd.

From the survey it has been estimated that there are approximately just over 26 million on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle. Over half of the on-farm grassfed adult beef cattle on hand are breeding cows with heifers making up an additional 15pc of the total estimated herd size, he said.

Queensland accounts for almost half the herd size at 48pc, with NSW holding 20pc and the remaining states making up the rest.

The survey is run three times a year by MLA.