The macadamia industry is entering nervous territory and growers are keeping a close eye on falling wholesale prices.
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With the Australian macadamia industry set to gather on the Gold Coast this week, the likely topic on everyone's lips will be markets.
Not since 1990 has the macadamia industry faced a price below input cost, as world supply of cheaper nuts, notably almonds, continue to challenge the market.
Meanwhile, demand slump as a result of COVID-19, and increased production in South Africa, remains unresolved and those who've been around before reckon it will be 2024 before the mood lifts.
Nut chips are the hardest to move and now some growers are calling out processors who have not worked harder to sell supply in a time of falling prices.
The macadamia industry had been expecting a price slide following recent record returns but late season offerings below $3.00 a kilogram for nut in shell has left growers grumbling.
Processors, meanwhile, are warning of further pain next season with the price falling below the cost of inputs.
Leading processor Marquis opened the season with a price of $3.80/kg at 33 per cent kernel recovery but now, at the end of the harvest, that price has come back to $2.90/kg and could slide further.
Most industry analysts agree that next year could be $2 to $2.50/kg.
"I would encourage farmers to shop around," said Alstonville sales agent and farm consultant Noel Outerbridge, with 45 years in the macadamia industry.
"Gone are the days of loyalty to one processor, especially when inputs like fertilisers have more than doubled."
He expressed concern that some processors might not be able to handle the volume now entering the system, with big farms in the Burnett region coming on line.
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North Lismore grower Vilma Giacomini, with her manager Jeff Zanette, have reaped better prices due to average kernel recovery 10 per cent above industry pricing, with a 10c/kg premium for every 1pc of nut.
Even with next year's predicted price slide they hope to make a dollar.
"However, the amount we work wouldn't give me a basic wage let alone what we have invested in the farm. There is no joy at the moment," he said, pointing out that steep farms on the ridges above Lismore were more expensive to harvest and prone to nut loss in rain events - although Mrs Giacomini's farm is less prone than most due to good grass cover under the canopy.
There will be no cut to orchard inputs because, like feeding cattle, you aim for production not maintenance if you expect quality to be there the following season.
"Like everything in farming, you ride the ups and downs," Mr Zanetti said.
Clunes grower Lindsay Bryen experienced the 1990 price collapse when nut in shell fell to below a dollar, at a time when break-even costs were around $1.50/kg.
At the time the industry was moving from hand-picking to machine harvesting and the price squeeze forced a lot of growers to mechanise.
Today that break-even price point has doubled to $3.00/kg and processors are warning growers that next year's price offering will be less than the cost of inputs.
"We've been here before," he said.
"It's to do with a series of issues and next year will be a shake up."
Impacts on Chinese trade including delays in shipping logistics while the South African crop is bigger than expected.
Growers in that country work on cash sales and are prepared to take a low bid for quick turnaround.
Some of the heavily invested growers in the Bundaberg region producing 5t/ha might spend $10,000 to $12,000/ha on inputs and will be looking at making a minor loss next year.
"Next year we will see a shaking out but the family farms will paddle through," Mr Bryen said.
Young trees recently planted won't reach full production for several years and while handling and processing capacity is limited at the moment, the industry is expected to improve that bottleneck over time.
"The small and broken kernel are harder to sell," he said.
"There needs to be better marketing of small halves and pieces which remain discounted. There should be a bigger effort into marketing of small styles and encourage new uses including manufacturing value added products."
